Determination of Climate Factors in Flood and Drought Disaster in Indonesia using Instrumental Variable (IV) Methods
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25077/jif.13.1.54-61.2021Abstract
Located in the Southeast Asia region, Indonesia has rainy and dry seasons. In the rainy and dry seasons that occur in Indonesia, often causes many problems in various business sectors and community activities, including floods and droughts. It is known that the disaster will have an impact on material and non-material losses. This study uses climate data and disaster data at the village level to determine the effect of rainfall on disasters. This study uses the instrumental variable method because the model has endogeneity problems. The study results concluded that increased rainfall had a positive impact on flood disasters with a coefficient of 0.003038. Simultaneously, rainfall also impacted drought with a coefficient of -0.000377. Variables in the regression model that are formed can explain 1.74 percent of the flood disaster and 0.59 percent of the drought disaster. These results indicate that most of the other variables can influence flooding and drought. Through this research, it is known that rainfall for floods and droughts is quite significant. Therefore, government and community efforts are needed to anticipate similar disasters.
Downloads
References
Asy’ari, Q. (2018). Analisis Dampak Sosial Ekonomi Pasca Bencana Di Kabupaten Pamekasan (Studi Kasus Banjir, Longsor dan Kekeringan di Pamekasan 2007). J-MACC: Journal of Management and Accounting, 1, 2, 153–168.
Banholzer, S., Kossin, J., & Donner, S. (2014). The impact of climate change on natural disasters. In Reducing disaster: Early warning systems for climate change (21–49). Springer.
Benevolenza, M. A., & DeRigne, L. (2019). The impact of climate change and natural disasters on vulnerable populations: A systematic review of literature. Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment, 29, 2, 266–281.
BPS. (2018). Statistik Potensi Desa.
Chatterjee, M. (2010). Slum dwellers response to flooding events in the megacities of India. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 15, 4, 337–353.
Cherniack, E. P. (2008). The impact of natural disasters on the elderly. American Journal of Disaster Medicine, 3, 3, 133–139.
Faradiba, F., & Zet, L. (2020). The Impact of climate factors, disaster, and social community in rural development. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7, 9, 707–717.
https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no9.707
Faradiba, F. (2018). Peramalan Curah Hujan dan Luas Serangan Organisme Pengganggu Tanaman Di Kabupaten Bogor. Pro-Life, 5, 3, 688–699.
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. (2009). Basic Econometrics Mc Graw-Hill International Edition.
Kurika, L. M., Lolo, M., & Moxon, J. E. (2019). Agricultural research and development on small islands and atolls: The Papua New Guinea experience.
Laksmana, E. A. (2011). Indonesia’s rising regional and global profile: does size really matter? Contemporary Southeast Asia, 157–182.
Manawi, S. M. A., Nasir, K. A. M., Shiru, M. S., Hotaki, S. F., & Sediqi, M. N. (2020). Urban Flooding in the Northern Part of Kabul City: Causes and Mitigation. Earth Systems and Environment, 4, 3, 599–610.
Marfai, M. A., & King, L. (2008). Potential vulnerability implications of coastal inundation due to sea level rise for the coastal zone of Semarang city, Indonesia. Environmental Geology, 54, 6, 1235–1245.
Mau, F. (2018). Hubungan Antara Curah Hujan dan Temperatur dengan Malaria di Kabupaten Sumba Barat Daya Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur-Indonesia. Buletin Penelitian Kesehatan, 46, 2, 129–134.
McSweeney, K., & Coomes, O. T. (2011). Climate-related disaster opens a window of opportunity for rural poor in northeastern Honduras. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108, 13, 5203–5208.
Mitchell, T., Ibrahim, M., Harris, K., Hedger, M., Polack, E., Ahmed, A. K., Hall, N., Hawrylyshyn, K., Nightingale, K., & Onyango, M. (2010). Climate smart disaster risk management.
Panwar, V., & Sen, S. (2019). Economic impact of natural disasters: An empirical re-examination. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 13(1), 109–139.
Porter, J. J., Demeritt, D., & Dessai, S. (2015). The right stuff? Informing adaptation to climate change in British local government. Global Environmental Change, 35, 411–422.
Potts, M. D. (2003). Drought in a Bornean everwet rain forest. Journal of Ecology, 91(3), 467–474.
Pratiwi, R. D., & Nugraha, A. L. (2016). Pemetaan Multi Bencana Kota Semarang. Jurnal Geodesi Undip, 5, 4, 122–131.
Rahman, M. S. (2013). Climate change, disaster and gender vulnerability: A study on two divisions of Bangladesh. American Journal of Human Ecology, 2, 2, 72–82.
Ralph, F. M., Neiman, P. J., Kingsmill, D. E., Persson, P. O. G., White, A. B., Strem, E. T., Andrews, E. D., & Antweiler, R. C. (2003). The impact of a prominent rain shadow on flooding in California’s Santa Cruz Mountains: A CALJET case study and sensitivity to the ENSO cycle. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4, 6, 1243–1264.
Rouault, M., & Richard, Y. (2003). Intensity and spatial extension of drought in South Africa at different time scales. Water Sa, 29, 4, 489–500.
Ryan, M. G. (2011). Tree responses to drought. Tree Physiology, 31(3), 237–239.
Sadiq, A.-A., & Noonan, D. (2015). Local capacity and resilience to flooding: community responsiveness to the community ratings system program incentives. Natural Hazards, 78, 2, 1413–1428.
Toya, H., & Skidmore, M. (2007). Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters. Economics Letters, 94, 1, 20–25.
Trysnyuk, V., Trysnyuk, T., Shumeiko, V. O. V., & Nikitin, A. (2018). Cartographic Models of Dniester River Basin Probable Flooding. Scientific Bulletin Series D: Mining, Mineral Processing, Non-Ferrous Metallurgy, Geology and Environmental Engineering, 32, 1, 51–55.
Van Aalst, M. K. (2006). The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters. Disasters, 30, 1, 5–18.
Verschuren, D., Laird, K. R., & Cumming, B. F. (2000). Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years. Nature, 403, 6768, 410–414.
Vines, A. P. (1970). An epidemiological sample survey of the highlands, mainland and islands regions of the Territory of Papua and New Guinea. An Epidemiological Sample Survey of the Highlands, Mainland and Islands Regions of the Territory of Papua and New Guinea.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2016). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. Nelson Education.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Citation Check
License
Please find the rights and licenses in JIF (Jurnal Ilmu Fisika).
1. License
The non-commercial use of the article will be governed by the Creative Commons Attribution license as currently displayed on Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
2. Author's Warranties
The author warrants that the article is original, written by stated author(s), has not been published before, contains no unlawful statements, does not infringe the rights of others, is subject to copyright that is vested exclusively in the author and free of any third party rights, and that any necessary written permissions to quote from other sources have been obtained by the author(s).
3. User Rights
JIF's spirit is to disseminate articles published are as free as possible. Under the Creative Commons license, JIF permits users to copy, distribute, display, and perform the work for non-commercial purposes only. Users will also need to attribute authors and JIF on distributing works in the journal.
4. Rights of Authors
Authors retain the following rights:
- Copyright, and other proprietary rights relating to the article, such as patent rights,
- The right to use the substance of the article in future own works, including lectures and books,
- The right to reproduce the article for own purposes, provided the copies are not offered for sale,
- The right to self-archive the article.
5. Co-Authorship
If the article was jointly prepared by other authors, the signatory of this form warrants that he/she has been authorized by all co-authors to sign this agreement on their behalf, and agrees to inform his/her co-authors of the terms of this agreement.
6. Termination
This agreement can be terminated by the author or JIF upon two months's notice where the other party has materially breached this agreement and failed to remedy such breach within a month of being given the terminating party's notice requesting such breach to be remedied. No breach or violation of this agreement will cause this agreement or any license granted in it to terminate automatically or affect the definition of JIF.
7. Royalties
This agreement entitles the author to no royalties or other fees. To such extent as legally permissible, the author waives his or her right to collect royalties relative to the article in respect of any use of the article by JIF or its sublicensee.
8. Miscellaneous
JIF will publish the article (or have it published) in the journal if the article's editorial process is successfully completed and JIF or its sublicensee has become obligated to have the article published. JIF may conform the article to a style of punctuation, spelling, capitalization, referencing and usage that it deems appropriate. The author acknowledges that the article may be published so that it will be publicly accessible and such access will be free of charge for the readers.