Determination of Climate Factors in Flood and Drought Disaster in Indonesia using Instrumental Variable (IV) Methods

Faradiba Faradiba    (Physics Education Study Program, Universitas Kristen Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia.)

 ) Corresponding Author
Copyright (c) 2021 Faradiba Faradiba

Located in the Southeast Asia region, Indonesia has rainy and dry seasons. In the rainy and dry seasons that occur in Indonesia, often causes many problems in various business sectors and community activities, including floods and droughts. It is known that the disaster will have an impact on material and non-material losses. This study uses climate data and disaster data at the village level to determine the effect of rainfall on disasters. This study uses the instrumental variable method because the model has endogeneity problems. The study results concluded that increased rainfall had a positive impact on flood disasters with a coefficient of 0.003038. Simultaneously, rainfall also impacted drought with a coefficient of -0.000377.  Variables in the regression model that are formed can explain 1.74 percent of the flood disaster and 0.59 percent of the drought disaster. These results indicate that most of the other variables can influence flooding and drought. Through this research, it is known that rainfall for floods and droughts is quite significant. Therefore, government and community efforts are needed to anticipate similar disasters.

  Click to Read the Full Text

Asy’ari, Q. (2018). Analisis Dampak Sosial Ekonomi Pasca Bencana Di Kabupaten Pamekasan (Studi Kasus Banjir, Longsor dan Kekeringan di Pamekasan 2007). J-MACC: Journal of Management and Accounting, 1, 2, 153–168.

Banholzer, S., Kossin, J., & Donner, S. (2014). The impact of climate change on natural disasters. In Reducing disaster: Early warning systems for climate change (21–49). Springer.

Benevolenza, M. A., & DeRigne, L. (2019). The impact of climate change and natural disasters on vulnerable populations: A systematic review of literature. Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment, 29, 2, 266–281.

BPS. (2018). Statistik Potensi Desa.

Chatterjee, M. (2010). Slum dwellers response to flooding events in the megacities of India. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 15, 4, 337–353.

Cherniack, E. P. (2008). The impact of natural disasters on the elderly. American Journal of Disaster Medicine, 3, 3, 133–139.

Faradiba, F., & Zet, L. (2020). The Impact of climate factors, disaster, and social community in rural development. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7, 9, 707–717.

Faradiba, F. (2018). Peramalan Curah Hujan dan Luas Serangan Organisme Pengganggu Tanaman Di Kabupaten Bogor. Pro-Life, 5, 3, 688–699.

Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. (2009). Basic Econometrics Mc Graw-Hill International Edition.

Kurika, L. M., Lolo, M., & Moxon, J. E. (2019). Agricultural research and development on small islands and atolls: The Papua New Guinea experience.

Laksmana, E. A. (2011). Indonesia’s rising regional and global profile: does size really matter? Contemporary Southeast Asia, 157–182.

Manawi, S. M. A., Nasir, K. A. M., Shiru, M. S., Hotaki, S. F., & Sediqi, M. N. (2020). Urban Flooding in the Northern Part of Kabul City: Causes and Mitigation. Earth Systems and Environment, 4, 3, 599–610.

Marfai, M. A., & King, L. (2008). Potential vulnerability implications of coastal inundation due to sea level rise for the coastal zone of Semarang city, Indonesia. Environmental Geology, 54, 6, 1235–1245.

Mau, F. (2018). Hubungan Antara Curah Hujan dan Temperatur dengan Malaria di Kabupaten Sumba Barat Daya Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur-Indonesia. Buletin Penelitian Kesehatan, 46, 2, 129–134.

McSweeney, K., & Coomes, O. T. (2011). Climate-related disaster opens a window of opportunity for rural poor in northeastern Honduras. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108, 13, 5203–5208.

Mitchell, T., Ibrahim, M., Harris, K., Hedger, M., Polack, E., Ahmed, A. K., Hall, N., Hawrylyshyn, K., Nightingale, K., & Onyango, M. (2010). Climate smart disaster risk management.

Panwar, V., & Sen, S. (2019). Economic impact of natural disasters: An empirical re-examination. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 13(1), 109–139.

Porter, J. J., Demeritt, D., & Dessai, S. (2015). The right stuff? Informing adaptation to climate change in British local government. Global Environmental Change, 35, 411–422.

Potts, M. D. (2003). Drought in a Bornean everwet rain forest. Journal of Ecology, 91(3), 467–474.

Pratiwi, R. D., & Nugraha, A. L. (2016). Pemetaan Multi Bencana Kota Semarang. Jurnal Geodesi Undip, 5, 4, 122–131.

Rahman, M. S. (2013). Climate change, disaster and gender vulnerability: A study on two divisions of Bangladesh. American Journal of Human Ecology, 2, 2, 72–82.

Ralph, F. M., Neiman, P. J., Kingsmill, D. E., Persson, P. O. G., White, A. B., Strem, E. T., Andrews, E. D., & Antweiler, R. C. (2003). The impact of a prominent rain shadow on flooding in California’s Santa Cruz Mountains: A CALJET case study and sensitivity to the ENSO cycle. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4, 6, 1243–1264.

Rouault, M., & Richard, Y. (2003). Intensity and spatial extension of drought in South Africa at different time scales. Water Sa, 29, 4, 489–500.

Ryan, M. G. (2011). Tree responses to drought. Tree Physiology, 31(3), 237–239.

Sadiq, A.-A., & Noonan, D. (2015). Local capacity and resilience to flooding: community responsiveness to the community ratings system program incentives. Natural Hazards, 78, 2, 1413–1428.

Toya, H., & Skidmore, M. (2007). Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters. Economics Letters, 94, 1, 20–25.

Trysnyuk, V., Trysnyuk, T., Shumeiko, V. O. V., & Nikitin, A. (2018). Cartographic Models of Dniester River Basin Probable Flooding. Scientific Bulletin Series D: Mining, Mineral Processing, Non-Ferrous Metallurgy, Geology and Environmental Engineering, 32, 1, 51–55.

Van Aalst, M. K. (2006). The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters. Disasters, 30, 1, 5–18.

Verschuren, D., Laird, K. R., & Cumming, B. F. (2000). Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years. Nature, 403, 6768, 410–414.

Vines, A. P. (1970). An epidemiological sample survey of the highlands, mainland and islands regions of the Territory of Papua and New Guinea. An Epidemiological Sample Survey of the Highlands, Mainland and Islands Regions of the Territory of Papua and New Guinea.

Wooldridge, J. M. (2016). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. Nelson Education.

StatisticsArticle Metrics

This article has been read : 91 times
PDF file viewed/downloaded : 28 times